As Europe Votes, CEE Nationalists Consolidate Power

Election week is upon us. More than two-thirds of European citizens are expected to vote in the EU Parliamentary elections between 6-9 June. Predicted results indicate more nationalist votes across the whole block. CEE countries will decide on 199 seats out of 720. The municipal elections in Hungary and parliamentary elections in Bulgaria will also be hosted on Sunday.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Eva Mihočková writes how the far right and parties with Eurosceptic rhetoric are strengthening their position in the lead-up to this week’s elections.
• Valeriia Nowak breaks down how Ukrainian integration has multiple benefits for the single market and security of the continent.
• Monday – Wednesday this week: EVENTS: The State of the EU’s Strategic Agenda. Join us from 3-5 June 2024 (Online) Click here for more information and to register

EU stands at a decisive point ahead of EP elections

EU/regional 

• Far-right parties could take more seats than Commission President Ursula von der Leyen‘s European People‘s Party.
• With the next European Commission’s strategic agenda set to prioritise defence, competitiveness and the rule of law, the EU looks likely to upgrade its power. But what remains of the once ambitious EU values agenda?
• Recent polls predict that the EPP will win 170 seats, between 10-20 less than the combined totals of the ECR, ID and non-affiliated parties – according to Politico.
• A quarter of all private money donated to EU political parties is received by far-right, far-left and populist movements – according to the Transparency Gap report.
• Read our foresight related to the upcoming elections, showcasing why these elections are pivotal, as well as the long-term perspectives on democratic security in the EU, part of our ongoing foresight on EU values with voices from CEE.

• Nationalist governments in CEE are likely to strengthen their positions, according to EP election polls. 
• Hungary’s ruling powers are set to win 74.9% of votes. Notably, Fidesz is also set to lose its absolute majority of Hungarian EP mandates, with polls saying it’ll gain nine seats while Magyar’s Tisza takes six—more than any other opposition party.
• Slovakia’s ruling coalition is projected to have 44.3% support. In comparison, the ANO party of populist ex-PM and billionaire Andrej Babiš is predicted to win 27%, signposting a potential change in power in elections next year – according to EUobserver.
• Overall, the number of far-right populists in CEE may grow by approximately 20%, translating to 40 radical and populist MEPs from the region.
• Read here for more about the potential CEE MEPs who could lead the next EP’s liberal resilience, or read here for who people are talking about for potential CEE commissioners.

• The EU continued to explore means of restricting Russian influence on the continent.
• On 27 May, the EC established a framework for restrictive measures against those responsible for human rights violations in Russia.
• On 29 May, searches were conducted at a private residence in Brussels and in EP offices in Strasbourg and Brussels in connection with the Russiagate case.
• Regulators are also examining whether Telegram—often used by pro-Kremlin accounts to spread disinformation—should qualify as a major online platform under the EU’s new content moderation law.
• On 30 May, EU ministers met to discuss further plans to ditch Russian energy imports amidst German and Czech plans to set up a high-level group to eliminate the last 20% of supplies coming from Moscow to Europe.
• Germany will scrap a gas storage levy at its border from January 2025, after a Czech-led Central European coalition said it harmed their efforts to ditch Russian gas, while the EC is considering sanctions on Russian ship insurer Ingosstrakh.

US gives Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia

UKRAINE

• The Biden administration has permitted Ukraine to strike inside Russia using US-provided weapons to better defend the area around Kharkiv.
• The NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Sofia on 28 May also adopted a declaration of support for Kyiv until victory, which emphasised that Ukraine should be able to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory using the aid provided by allies.
• Josep Borrell stated that several EU countries allow their weaponry to be deployed against Russian territory and that others will soon lift restrictions.
• However, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs emphasised that a balance must be maintained between the risk of escalation and Ukraine’s need to protect itself.

• Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that NATO would not deploy training missions to Ukraine while speaking at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
• This followed news that Emmanuel Macron is in talks to forge a coalition aimed at sending military training personnel into Ukraine, which may be unveiled at a World War II commemoration ceremony in Normandy on 6 June.
• PM Ingrida Šimonytė has said Lithuania is ready to join such a coalition.
• But Warsaw is considering forming and training a unit of draft-aged Ukrainian men living in Poland, an alternative which FM Radosław Sikorski said would be safer and more efficient during an informal meeting of NATO FMs in Prague on 30-31 May.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy strengthened a number of security ties during a tour of Europe last week. 
• Security pacts were signed with Belgium (€1 billion in military support for 2024), Spain (€1 billion in aid for 2024, with a further €5 billion pledged by 2027) and Portugal (€126 million in military aid for 2024), as well as Sweden, Norway and Iceland.
• The Netherlands is also spearheading an initiative to quickly assemble and transfer a Patriot air defence system to Ukraine, calling on other EU nations to contribute.
• However, Ukrainian DM Rustem Umerov has said that around half of foreign military aid is arriving late – according to an interview with Reuters.
• He added that Russian forces are trying to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible while Ukraine waits on supplies, with plans to open a new front in the north and add 200-300,000 servicemen.
• Ukraine was forced to impose emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on 2 June, after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk province.

• Europe has only a fraction of the air defence capabilities needed to protect its eastern flank – according to the FT. 
• Citing internal NATO calculations, the FT reported that NATO members could provide less than 5% of the air defence capacities deemed necessary to protect its members in Central and Eastern Europe against a full-scale attack.
• The need to grow the European defence industry, provide more air systems for Ukraine and Czech plans to provide more ammunition were all discussed at the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on 27-28 May.
• Prague is reportedly on track to deliver only 48,000 rounds by 10 June, out of the 800,000 rounds it promised – according to Politico.
• The FAC also discussed how to find a face-saving outcome for the Ukraine peace summit on June 15-16, after it was revealed Biden is planning to skip the gathering, in a move which Zelenskyy has said “would only be applauded by Putin”.
• Officials said the important issue is how to progress from next month’s conference to a possible meeting in Saudi Arabia in the autumn with the participation of Russia.

Hungarian vetoes frustrate EU negotiations 

CZECH REPUBLIC