Analysis
EU Values Foresight
Information Sovereignty
Shaping the Debate: How to Secure Our Democracies from Malign Interference
10 December 2024
A year after Russia’s assault on Ukraine, Western reluctance to send longer-range weapons to Ukraine remains deeply rooted in fears of nuclear escalation by a desperate Moscow. But Ukraine will struggle for victory without the ability to strike well behind Russian lines.
Despite the growing conviction in Western capitals that a Ukrainian victory should be the desired endgame to the Russian invasion, they remain reluctant to “provoke” Vladimir Putin towards a major escalation with some types of weapon deliveries to the Ukrainian military.
What would constitute such a major escalation often remains unsaid, but there is little doubt that the potential use of nuclear arms is what is meant here. One may imagine that the Russians will either start shelling Ukrainian nuclear power plants or even deploy tactical nuclear weapons. But everyone saw what happened in the Energodar nuclear power plant where the Russian Army stored artillery rounds.
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