Commentary
International Relations
Think Tank
Western Balkans Futures
Simulating Five Scenarios for the Western Balkans
13 May 2022
In this Monthly Foresight, the Hungarian and Serbian elections are round up while the French and Slovene ones are scheduled to be held. Atrocities in Ukraine make peace much harder to achieve and relations with Russian minorities in the Baltics are becoming tenser.
A lot is happening in April.
Hungarian Elections
The reelection of Prime Minister Victor Orbán with a two-thirds majority spells a period of isolation for Hungary from the V4 as well as from the wider EU community. The loss of the United Opposition under Péter Márki-Zay means that the Hungarian opposition must reinvent itself once again.
The relatively close polling numbers in the final polls do show that uniting together fielded much better results but ultimately was not enough to overcome the electoral system that Fidesz has created. Since consolidation is ruled out in his political regime, combative rhetorics will be decisive along with further capturing key economic sectors and sidelining dissidents.
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