Economic Security
Interview
Münchau Is Optimistic About Their Prospects, But Not Ours – INTERVIEW
8 November 2025
Three years ago, many economists predicted Russia’s economy would collapse under the weight of Western sanctions. Instead, it has grown – but at what cost?
According to predictions made three years ago in February and March, Russia should have been on its knees by this time – at least in economic terms. Western countries sided with Ukraine from the beginning of the conflict, and although they introduced economic sanctions reluctantly and gradually, many economists anticipated devastating effects.
However, predictions of double-digit GDP drops, collapsing industrial and mining firms, failing banks and millions of people out of work have not materialised. The Russian economy was severely tested in the first year of the war. It fell into recession when it plunged 1.2%, inflation soared to 18% and the ruble entered a de facto free fall.
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