Video recap: Poland’s Presidential Election Results

With Karol Nawrocki winning the presidential election in Poland, what can we expect for the nation’s future?

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In a post-election online discussion, experts Anna Kuczyńska and Wojciech Przybylski unpacked the implications of Karol Nawrocki’s narrow victory over Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential runoff. Watch the video recap below:

With a turnout of 71.63% – one of the highest in recent years – the vote reflected deep national polarisation along geographic, generational, gender and educational lines.

Regional divides and voter turnout

Trzaskowski performed well across most regions and urban areas but failed to overcome conservative strongholds in the east.

Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS) and closely associated with Poland’s nationalist historical policy, secured 50.89% of the vote – just over 10.6 million votes – while Trzaskowski received 49.11% (10.2 million).

Notably, the highest turnout was recorded in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship (77.2%), and the lowest in Opolskie (62.4%) – both of which were won by Trzaskowski. Yet, this regional advantage did not translate into a nationwide win.

Who voted for whom: Gender, age and education

Kuczyńska highlighted the striking demographic divides: Trzaskowski won among women (52.8%), and in cities of all sizes, and was supported predominantly by voters with higher education.

Nawrocki dominated among men (55.5%) and in rural areas, where he won 64.2% of the vote. A key generational shift was also noted: while the 2023 parliamentary election saw strong youth support for the opposition, this time Nawrocki led among voters aged 18–29 (53.2%). Trzaskowski only led among the 40–49 and 50–59 age brackets.

Vote transfers and missed mobilisation

Vote transfers between the first and second rounds were critical. Among Nawrocki’s second-round voters, 24.7% had previously supported the libertarian and nationalist Sławomir Mentzen, 9.6% had voted for far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun and 5.9% had abstained in the first round.

Trzaskowski drew second-round support from voters who had backed Adrian Zandberg (8.6%), Magdalena Biejat (7.2%) and Szymon Hołownia (7.2%) – and mobilised 6.5% of voters who had not turned out previously.

Przybylski emphasised that mobilisation was key. Campaign statisticians in the Trzaskowski camp had forecast that if turnout exceeded 73%, the liberal candidate would win. Ultimately, this threshold was not met. Trzaskowski had to campaign across the political spectrum, trying to appeal to both centrists and the left, while Nawrocki consolidated support on the right – drawing on PiS’s base, Mentzen’s libertarians and Braun’s far-right followers.

A Campaign defined by scandal

Much of the media focus during the campaign centred not on Nawrocki’s policy proposals, but on his fitness for office. His background includes a tenure at the Museum of the Second World War in Gdańsk and later the Institute of National Remembrance, where he was seen as instrumental in reshaping historical narratives along PiS lines.

He also faced a series of controversies, including alleged involvement in hooliganism as a student, a property scandal and accusations published by Onet linking him to a pimping case. Despite – or perhaps because of – this negative attention, he remained the focal point of the campaign.

Role of the president in Poland

The office of the president, while partly symbolic, holds powerful tools – including the ability to veto legislation (requiring a 60% majority in parliament to override), send laws to a now-dysfunctional Constitutional Tribunal and exert influence over foreign affairs, military appointments and central bank leadership.

With the current government lacking the votes to override a veto, Nawrocki’s presidency could significantly limit the governing coalition’s ability to legislate.

Geopolitical alignments and the far-right international

International dynamics also coloured the campaign. Nawrocki received explicit support from Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Donald Trump and CPAC which was held in Poland ahead of the vote – all part of a broader far-right alliance in the region and further afield.

By contrast, Romania’s Nicușor Dan backed Trzaskowski. Nawrocki reportedly agreed not to support Ukraine’s accession to NATO – aligning him with nationalist forces in Poland increasingly sceptical of ongoing support for Kyiv.

Questions from our readers:

What’s next for Rafał Trzaskowski?

• Answer: He remains the mayor of Warsaw, likely until the end of his term. However, after losing two presidential elections, his position within the party hierarchy may weaken. He may choose to withdraw from national politics.

Why are anti-Ukrainian sentiments on the rise in Poland?

• Answer: Driven partly by economic competition and perceived strain on public services. Younger Poles, especially, feel relatively deprived and may view Ukrainian workers as contributing to their own economic insecurity. This is more of a sociological than purely political issue.

What will be the impact of Nawrocki’s presidency on EU enlargement, Ukraine, and Moldova?

• Answer:
  • Moldova: Continued Polish support is likely.
  • Ukraine: Support will continue, but the new president may impose conditions, particularly around NATO membership.
  • Enlargement: Not significantly impacted at this stage.
    

What impact will Nawrocki have on international forums like the Bucharest 9 or Three Seas Initiative?

• Answer:
  • Bucharest 9: Cooperation may be strained since Romania’s President Dan openly campaigned for Trzaskowski. However, both countries share core interests in Eastern Flank security, so practical cooperation is expected to continue.
  • Three Seas Initiative: No specific changes mentioned, but broader geopolitical alignment may be affected.

Is Poland’s support for Ukraine weakening?

• Answer: No. Broad bipartisan support remains, including within PiS and across Polish society. While some fringe or minority voices express doubt, these do not represent the mainstream.

Will defence spending and military development be affected?

• Answer: Unlikely. There is strong bipartisan consensus for continuing or even increasing defence spending, military preparedness, and cooperation with the United States.

Is Nawrocki an independent actor or under Kaczyński’s control?

• Answer: Kaczyński still calls the shots within PiS and was instrumental in Nawrocki’s rise. However, a generational shift is emerging, particularly with the growing influence of Konfederacja. Kaczyński remains dominant but may be transitioning to the sidelines.

Would Radosław Sikorski have been a better candidate?

• Answer: It’s speculative, but many in Poland are debating this. Sikorski might now position himself for a 2030 presidential bid, though he has made no formal announcements.

Will the coalition government be able to consolidate fiscal policy by 2026?

• Answer: Unlikely. The current political configuration and presidential veto power make fiscal consolidation difficult.

How will Nawrocki’s presidency affect Poland’s role in the European Council and EU decision-making?

• Answer: Minimal impact on daily EU operations, which are largely handled by Prime Minister Tusk. Presidential influence is mostly symbolic, except for matters like signing treaties, appointing commissioners, or vetoing international agreements.

Speakers: 

Anna Kuczyńska – Assistant professor at the Department of Sociology at Collegium Civitas and the Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Res Publica Nowa. She graduated in sociology from the University of Warsaw and the Polish School of Reportage (Polska Szkoła reportażu) at the Institute of Reportage. She obtained a PhD in social sciences from the Faculty of Sociology at the University of Warsaw.

Wojciech Przybylski –  political analyst heading Visegrad Insight’s policy foresight on European affairs. His expertise includes foreign policy and political culture. Editor-in-Chief of Visegrad Insight and President of the Res Publica Foundation. Europe’s Future Fellow at IWM – Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna and Erste Foundation.

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