What if Ukraine Wins the War?

How the Ukrainian conflict will end depends on a united Western strategy. The failures of appeasement must not be repeated, and only after a clear Russian loss will peace be possible.

We are facing a huge test in the Russian war against Ukraine. Kyiv is winning on the battlefield. The bombing of the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, and the subsequent retaliatory missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, represent a new round of escalation. People always expected escalations, but hardly anyone expected Ukrainian victories on the battlefield.  Not only are the Russians surprised, but so too, are many of Ukraine’s supporters in the West.

After the Dust Has Settled  

As a result, there has been a remarkable lack of discussion of what the end state in Ukraine should look like. Are all of Ukraine’s Western supporters ready for the white-knuckle ride as Ukraine’s forces edge closer to Russia’s borders or try to retake Crimea?  Are they psychologically prepared for a complete victory that humbles Russia’s imperial ambitions?

The short answer is most are not. The Biden administration appears to be committed to a Ukrainian victory, having been responsible for giving the lion’s share of its weapons. But there are troubling signs. President Biden appears flustered by Vladimir Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. He said recently, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis. I’m trying to figure out: what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he find a way out?”