Turbulent Waters in the Black Sea

Russia is taking control of the Black Sea and transit through the area is both more costly and dangerous. New routes are opening up but will they be solutions to the trade crisis already unfolding?

‘Our ports are mined and blocked, we can’t export our grain, corn, sunflower oil. We need to find alternatives and Bulgaria can be that alternative’. Those were the words of the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba while on a visit to Sofia last week. They got lost amongst the (inexplicable) hysteria surrounding the topic of transferring arms to Ukraine, yet they are rather important.

Ukraine is one of the top producers of grains and other foods in the world. The Russian War has basically rendered the upper third of the Black Sea unusable for commercial purposes and has made the rest of it drastically more expensive than just two months ago. This has several implications.

First, it will add to food shortages and price inflation all over the world. Second, it impedes countries and companies around the Black Sea from doing business. And third, it has suddenly shown what a large vulnerability the reliance on the maritime trade routes can be in a closed basin such as this one.