Trump is Back. What Does It Mean for the Western Balkans?

Indirect consequences of decisions taken elsewhere may impact the Western Balkans more than any direct engagement

14 November 2024

Jan Farfał

Marcin Król Fellow

The Western Balkans stand on the periphery of Trump’s priorities. Overshadowed by China, Ukraine and the Middle East, it is difficult to envision any tectonic changes in the region. Yet, it might be precisely Trump’s decisions taken elsewhere that stand to challenge the status quo.

Britain’s Labour Party is unsure. France’s Macron appears less fazed. Politicians in Brussels hastily delete their mean tweets. In Banja Luka, Milorad Dodik threw a party.

Amid Western Europe’s apprehension, reactions in the Western Balkans were strikingly different. From Belgrade to Skopje, Trump’s victory sparked satisfaction among nationalist leaders and their supporters, who see Trump as more than just a politician, but a symbol of defiance against the establishment.

Trump stands against characteristics of American politics Balkan nationalists detest: interventionism, political correctness and the progressive agenda. When it comes to his persona – his friendships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, his reputation as an enemy of Hilary Clinton, who is the embodiment of evil to Serbian nationalists, and his showmanship – it’s clear: ‘He’s our guy.’

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Jan Farfał

Marcin Król Fellow

Marcin Król Fellow 2022/2023 at Visegrad Insight and a Doctoral candidate in Area Studies (Russia and East Europe) at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies. His project examines the ways in which émigré journals addressed their home societies behind the Iron Curtain. He is a Researcher in the project ‘Europe in a Changing World’, led by Professor Timothy Garton Ash and Professor Paul Betts, at the European Studies Center at the University of Oxford.

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