The Next President of Poland. Nawrocki Signals a New Chapter of Bitter Polarisation

Poland’s presidential election has cracked open a new fault line in its politics.

Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, edged out Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, with a razor-thin 51-49% victory. The result mirrors the 2020 race, when Trzaskowski fell to PiS-aligned Andrzej Duda by a similar margin, but this time, a record 71% turnout underscores the stakes.

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Projections suggested Trzaskowski could have won if turnout hit 73% — a missed chance that highlights the untapped power of undecided voters. Compare that to the 2023 parliamentary elections, where 74% turnout propelled Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition to victory, and it’s clear the current government’s grip is shaky.

This isn’t just a domestic squabble. Nawrocki’s win emboldens nationalist firebrands like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump, while muddying Poland’s role in Europe and its ties with neighbours like Romania. With two years until the next parliamentary vote, Poland faces a paralysing clash between a eurosceptic president and a pro-EU prime minister.

Nationalists reclaim the presidency

Nawrocki’s triumph hands PiS a powerful weapon to counter Tusk’s coalition, which ousted them in 2023. The presidency is not just a ceremonial window-dressing — it comes with teeth: veto power over laws, influence on judicial and military appointments, and a hand in shaping foreign policy. Duda used these tools to stall Tusk’s reforms on judicial independence and women’s rights. Nawrocki, a combative figure tied to PiS’s polarising legacy, is set to crank up the obstruction, locking Poland in a political deep freeze until 2027.

The domestic fallout is grim. Tusk’s coalition, already wobbling, faces a reinvigorated nationalist camp. The record turnout, coupled with strong showings from far-right candidates like Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, reveals a fractured electorate. Urban liberals are pitted against rural conservatives, and young voters are flirting with anti-establishment voices, especially Konfederacja, Mentzen’s slick libertarian outfit. Its social media savvy and appeal to the under-30s make it a wildcard for 2027.

A nationalist boost for Orbán and Trump

Nawrocki’s victory, amplified by Poland’s critical geostrategic importance, reverberates beyond Poland’s borders. For Orbán, who hosted Nawrocki at a Budapest CPAC event, it’s a coup. The Hungarian leader gains another Central European ally who shares his disdain for Brussels and may soft-pedal on Hungarian pro-Russian stance. This risks dragging Poland away from Europe’s power centre, fraying EU unity amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and trade spats with the US.

Across the Atlantic, Trump’s camp is living its moment of a modest schadenfreude. Nawrocki, who scored a White House meeting and endorsements from MAGA figures like Kristi Noem, channels “America First” vibes with his pledge to put Poland above EU dictates. His win strengthens a transatlantic anti-globalist network, potentially fuelling eurosceptic surges in the Czech Republic, where Andrej Babiš tops polls, and Slovakia, under Robert Fico’s isolationist sway. But for MAGA circles, who remembered Donald Tusk’s Twitter rampages against the first Donald Trump’s presidency it must also have a taste of revenge.

Romania feels the heat

In Romania, Nawrocki’s victory lands like a thunderclap. George Simion, the hard-right eurosceptic who lost Romania’s presidency to centrist Nicușor Dan on 18 May, campaigned hard for Nawrocki, touting a shared “freedom and sovereignty” vision. Though defeated, Simion draws symbolic clout from Nawrocki’s win, amplifying his nationalist narrative.

For Romania’s President Dan, a pro-EU reformer, the headache is real. Having backed Trzaskowski, Dan now faces a Polish president whose agenda clashes with his own. This discord between NATO’s eastern flank heavyweights could hamstring regional cooperation, notably the Bucharest Nine security initiative, where Poland and Romania were linchpins. Finding common ground will demand diplomatic acrobatics, especially with Russia’s shadow looming.

Two years of gridlock

Unlike Duda, who occasionally played regional bridge-builder, Nawrocki is unlikely to chase international kudos. His focus will be domestic trench warfare: vetoing Tusk’s reforms on judicial independence, abortion, and civil unions. This standoff will deepen Poland’s urban-rural divide and overall likely empower Konfederacja, which is already eyeing 2027.

Tusk, meanwhile, is playing the long game, but Nawrocki’s vetoes threaten to choke reforms needed to unlock EU funds vital for Poland’s economy. The president’s euroscepticism, though subtler than Orbán’s, could dim Poland’s rising star in Europe. The broader picture is bleak: Nawrocki’s win fuels Central Europe’s nationalist wave, strains ties with Romania, and dents EU unity when it’s needed most. Poland, once poised as a confident European power, risks turning inward — at least until 2027.

• Democracy
• Elections
• Poland