Commentary
International Relations
Trump’s Second Term a Crossroads for Central Europe – COMMENTARY
6 November 2024
Last year, the European Commission presented five scenarios for the future of the EU. The debate had to be channelled around the prospect of continued integration through deepening, limiting (and seeking more efficiency) or bringing the whole process back simply to the common market.
A year later, Visegrad/Insight and the German Marshall Fund drew up five scenarios for the Central European (CE) countries over the next seven years, and the starting point is the illiberal trends in Hungary and Poland.
The background
The first scenario allowed for a triumph of illiberalism not only in the region but throughout the EU, which would lead to a gradual dismantling of the main European principles – democracy and the rule of law. As a result, the European project degrades to a free trade area between nominal democracies.
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