The Region Heats up as the Weather Cools Down

October Monthly Foresight

3 October 2022

October is seeing the Ukrainians push back the Russians as inflation in the region rises. Also worth noting are the paths Bulgaria and Latvia chose in their recent elections and the political problems Slovakia is facing.

As Russia experiences double-digit inflation and continues to lose territories it has occupied in Ukraine to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) counter-offensive, the Kremlin has decided to decree that the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in Ukraine are now Russian territory. While this decree was taking place, Lyman a strategically important town in Donetsk was being retaken by the UAF. 

The reason for the decision could be to boost the morale of Russia amidst losses or to legitimise mobilisation laws as mobilised troops should be used on ‘Russian soil.’ The world has condemned the referendums as illegitimate as well as their outcomes.

The UAF counter-offensive continues with successes in the Donetsk oblast around Lyman and a rumoured push in the South around Kherson. This is supported by reports of 25,000 Russian soldiers being stranded along the Dnipro River with little to no capacity to cross since the bridges have all been destroyed by UAF forces. As winter approaches, this autumn may be the last chance for large-scale operations in the area.

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