Foresight
Politics
Poland’s 2025 Presidential Race: Tusk’s Patriotic Gamble
21 April 2025
The EU is poised for significant changes and Donald Tusk’s Poland has a prime opportunity to lead. This also means Poland will find itself at the heart of highly politicised, cross-European debates, whether or not Warsaw takes control of the EU budget portfolio.
Last week, former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi declared that the EU must revolutionise its approach to competitiveness if it wants to avoid ‘slow agony’ in the race against economic rivals the United States and China.
The bloc needs to better coordinate industrial policy and invest as much as €800 billion per year, or 5% of GDP – far higher than the 1-2% of GDP that was required in the Marshall Plan for rebuilding Europe after World War Two.
In turn, the EU must take responsibility for its own security, not just because the defence industry faces ‘structural challenges’ that limit the bloc’s competitiveness, but due to changing transatlantic relations, as the US reallocates resources to the Indo-Pacific – no matter who wins the US presidential elections in November.
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