Think Tank
Video Recap: US Elections’ Impact on CEE Security
6 November 2024
Press clips collected from different media outlets demonstrate the relevance of the Central European Futures report in the current public debate.
October 4, Paul Taylor, editor-at-large Politico Europe, writes about our report with five possible scenarios for Central Europe to 2025:
The most alarming involves a “triumph of illiberalism” spreading from Hungary and Poland across the Continent and leading to a gradual unraveling of the EU or a collapse of NATO, with the U.S. withdrawing from European security after disputes over trade and defense spending, prompting EU countries to pursue divergent national survival strategies with outside powers.
The more optimistic posits a revival of European unity in the face of fresh Russian military action in Ukraine, with Western European military and economic assistance pouring into Central Europe, sweeping away the current skepticism, or a Central European youth movement against corruption, illiberalism and official Euroskepticism beginning in Poland and spreading around the region, replacing a discredited political class with a new generation of pro-integration leaders.
Read full article in English
October 4, Pavol Demeš, former Slovak Minister of Foreign Affairs, hosts a TV interview with both editors of the report in his TASR (Slovak Press Agency) World Here and Now program. Watch in English
October 4, interview in the Polish Radio 2 (Dwójka, Puls świata) hosted by Magdalena Skajewska. Listen to the podcast in Polish
October 4, in Slovak Hlavne Spravy:
Štúdia, ktorú zverejnili v utorok vo Varšave, konštatuje, že na základe vývoja v uplynulých rokoch je stále zrejmejšie, že éra demokratickej reformy, sociálno-ekonomického rozvoja a západnej integrácie v strednej Európe po skončení studenej vojny sa schyľuje ku koncu. Namiesto toho sa kormidla ujímajú protiliberálne politiky, ktoré podkopávajú základy demokracie a právneho štátu. Ožívajúci nacionalizmus v stredoeurópskom regióne ho navyše uvrháva do sporov s ďalšími európskymi susedmi.
Read full article in Slovak
October 5, a reference to the report in an article by Andrej Matišák in Slovak Pravda:
Podľa experta na medzinárodné vzťahy Jörga Forbriga z organizácie German Marshall Fund je v tejto chvíli pozícia strednej Európy unikátna. “Je to o tom, že môže prvý raz v modernej histórii sama rozhodnúť o vlastnej budúcnosti. V čase integrácie do medzinárodných štruktúr preberala modely. Teraz ich môže vytvárať,“ uviedol pre Pravdu na Tatra Summite Forbrig, ktorý sa podieľal na vytvorení štúdie Budúcnosti strednej Európy: Päť scenárov pre rok 2025.
Read full article in Slovak
October 10, Sabina Fati in Radio Free Europe Romania:
Europa Centrală nu se pliază încă întru totul pe valorile europene, iar viitorul ar putea lua un curs periculos pentru regiune, sînt opiniile a doi cercetători, polonezul Wojciech Przybylski și americanul Joerg Forbrig, care au prezentat un studiu în acest sens la Forum 2000 în Praga. Nici viitorul României nu sună mai bine, iar pericolele care o pândesc urmează aceleași scenarii, ne-a explicat Wojciech Przybylski. La fel ca statele de la Vișegrad, România este pândită de spectrul iliberalismului, poate suferi din cauza fracturilor apărute în interiorul UE, dar în același timp ar putea fi salvată de o nouă generație de politicieni sau s-ar putea confrunta cu o criză de securitate. Toate cele cinci scenarii gândite pentru Europa Centrală se potrivesc și pentru România: toate evoluțiile sînt în curs deja și merită dezbătute pentru a alge cea mai bună cale.
Read full artile in Romanian
October 12, Martin Ehl features the report in the paper and online edition of the main Czech economic daily Hospodarske noviny:
Odhad budoucího vývoje byl vždy, už od dob Sibyly, oblíbenou disciplínou. Lidé jsou přirozeně zvědaví, co je čeká, i když to mohou dost zásadně ovlivnit sami tím, co dělají − nebo nedělají. V socialistickém Československu dokonce existoval Prognostický ústav Akademie věd. Jeho přínos ohledně věcí příštích spočíval především v tom, že dal Česku a Slovensku skupinu lidí, která se pokusila ovlivnit budoucnost zemí a národů tím, že se dostala do vrcholových politických pozic.
Read full article in Czech (paywall)
October 13, interview by Marek Pędziwol in the Polish edition of Deutsche Welle:
Ten raport ma być impulsem do debaty. W Berlinie i Brukseli dużo się dyskutuje o tym, co się dzieje w Europie Środkowej. Pojawiają się obawy, że droga, którą kraje tego regionu podążały przez ostatnie trzy dekady, już się kończy. To rodzi wiele pytań. Chcemy na nie odpowiedzieć i wciągnąć do debaty zachodnich partnerów. I chcemy, żeby toczyła się ona także tu, w regionie. Żeby nie znalazł się kiedyś w takiej sytuacji, jak Wielka Brytania, gdzie najpierw zapada decyzja, a dopiero potem zaczęła się debata. Chcielibyśmy, żeby tu było odwrotnie: najpierw dobra debata, a dopiero potem ważne decyzje o przyszłości regionu.
Read full article in Polish
October 16, a summary of the report available in Russian on the Belarusian portal Reformation (reform.by):
October 18, op-ed by Marcin Bużański in Polish daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna:
W Europie Środkowej nastąpił kres pewnej epoki. Koniec okresu, który od 1989 r. charakteryzował się dynamicznymi reformami, integracją ze strukturami świata zachodniego i zaangażowaniem w budowę społeczeństwa obywatelskiego. Co nastąpi po nim? W którą stronę pójdzie Europa Środkowa?
Read full article in Polish
October 24, article by Szilárd Teczár in Hungarian weekly Magyar Narancs:
Aztán arra gondoltam, hogy ez a „semmi visszafordíthatatlan” inkább csak a napi politika „business as usual” perspektívájából tűnik annak, valójában az elmúlt hét évben is számos olyasmi történt, amit 2011-ben politikai sci-finek minősítettünk volna: a jogállam lebontása Magyarországon, Brexit, a Krím elcsatolása, Donald Trump. Ha pedig így van, nem árt előre elgondolkodni az előttünk álló újabb katasztrófákon és azok megelőzésén. Bár a Visegrad Insight forgatókönyvei közül betű szerint nyilván egyik sem fog megvalósulni, azt jól érzékeltetik, milyen külső és belső folyamatokon múlik a közeljövőnk. És hogy mekkora a tét.
October 25, Euractiv publishes an op-ed by Wojciech Przybylski:
By now, the level of integration of regional economies, societies and political institutions within the Western world is so strong that the path the region may take will project an influence on the course of events in the rest of Europe.
October 26, Edit Zgut writes her analysis on how to defeat illiberalism in Central Europe for the Hungarian HVG weekly:
Instead of offering specific forecasts, the report offers possible trajectories which may materialise in Central Europe and the EU. However, in several scenarios, neither the democratic forces of Europe nor the European Union itself will be able to stop the deterioration of democracy in Central Europe. Consequently, European integration will essentially be wiped out, and the EU will be little more than a free trade zone between nominal democracies.Looking at Hungary from a long-term perspective, the above scenario is far from impossible.
Read the article in English
Original article in Hungarian
November 8, in French Courrier International:
November 16, Matúš Dávid interviewed Magda Vášáryová diplomat and politician and Tomáš Strážay, SFPA expert for the Slovak .glóbus program on .týždeň:
Czechia’s prime minister is a billionaire under a criminal investigation. Rule of law sways from Hungary or Poland. The nationalists in Slovakia are also flirting with the idea of illiberal democracy. Politicians’ lies win over the facts. Will the future be about fragmentation and security vacuum? And will V4 still exist in 2025?
Watch online, also available as an audio podcast – in Slovak
November 22, critical and slightly misleading review of the CEF report by István Léko, the editor-in-chief of the Czech daily Lidové noviny – neither the GMF or V/I are liberal-left think tanks, nor we advocate for some specific scenario:
2019
January 2, Hana Lipovska, Masaryk University, for MF DNES mentions about five possible scenarios for Central Europe to 2025 based on our report while stating:
CZ: “Liberální demokraté vracejí zpět do dob „lidových demokracií“, kterých se země visegrádské čtyřky chtěly jednou provždy zbavit. Skutečný demokrat nemůže být liberálním demokratem, nechce-li principy pravé demokracie bez přívlastku zradit”.
EN: “Liberal Democrats are returning us back to the times of “popular democracies” that the countries of the Visegrad Four have always wanted to get rid of. A true democrat cannot be a liberal democrat if he does not want to betray the principles of true democracy without the attribute”.
Read the full text of the article in Czech.
January 13, Alexander Malinov, Master of European Studies with Focus on Eastern Europe, University of Amsterdam, for Terminal 3 is talking about the Central Europe Futures:
BU: “С оглед на факта, че България почти неизменно следва развитието на горепосочените страни от т.нар. Вишеградска четворка в последните 30 години, то разгледаните сценарии са също толкова актуални и за нашата страна”.
EN: “In the view of the fact that Bulgaria almost invariably follows the development of the aforementioned countries from the Visegrad Four in the last 30 years, the reviewed scenarios are just as relevant for our country”.
February 7, Disintegration begins in Eastern Europe: Democracy and the rule of law are endangered in Central and Eastern Europe, and dynamics of nationalism threaten the European project. Five scenarios for the year 2025 at Zeit.de [read full text in German]:
DE: “Mitteleuropa ist das Labor, in dem sich die Zukunft des Kontinents besichtigen lässt. Wohl nirgendwo sonst tritt der enorme innere und äußere Druck auf das europäische Projekt mit ähnlicher Wucht zutage wie in den Visegrad-Ländern östlich Deutschlands“.
February 8, THE CABLE PODCAST: The Future of Central Europe:
The post-Cold War era in Central Europe is coming to an end. Democratic reform, socioeconomic development and Western integration once taken for granted are being replaced by uncertainty amid resurgent nationalism and the rise of illiberal politics that are hollowing out democracy and the rule of law. And how it all plays out will be central to the future of the European Union and the transatlantic alliance.
Host: GREGORY FEIFER
Guests: JOERG FORBRIG and WOJCIECH PRZYBYLSKI
Click here to listen the podcast.
March 6, Interview for La Libre Belgique in French:
March 13, #CentralEuropeanFutures in Polish RZECZPOSPOLITA :
PL: Zanim porozmawiamy o Polsce z 2050 r., Zadajmy sobie pytanie o kształt Europy 25 lat wcześniej. Wszystko, co wskazuje na, że w ciągu ostatnich lat pojawiło się wiele zdarzeń, które miały miejsce na świecie, przez ostatnie 30 lat była integracja Europy. Kierunek, który obierze nasz region, wyznaczuje pole manewru Polski.
EN: Before we talk about Poland from 2050, let us ask ourselves about the shape of Europe 25 years earlier. All that indicates that in recent years there have been many events that have taken place in the world, the past 30 years has been the integration of Europe. The direction that our region will take out determines Poland’s room for manoeuvre.
April 9, Gazeta Krakowska writes about #CentralEuropeanFutures report:
‘This document is especially important in times of uncertainty. Central European politicians should finally start debating themselves in the future. It seems that on the wave of meetings regarding the report this debate has been taken, on the other hand, more and more politicians from Western Europe are interested in the V4 group’ – comments Karolina Olszowska, a coordinator at RODM.
This post will be updated.
