Think Tank
Video Recap: US Elections’ Impact on CEE Security
6 November 2024
Several global digital-age malign practices further undermine democratic resilience in the V4 countries. How are they pronounced in the business environment, especially against the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the post-pandemic moment?
The Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two major disruptive developments of the decade. Both triggered a global response that considerably impacted the business environment in Central Europe. Under a scenario of extended war and further sanctions on Russia leading to curtailed energy supplies, the 2023 GDP growth of the V4 could dwindle to 2.14%, down from a pre-invasion forecast of 4.18%.
Simultaneously, business in the V4 countries is increasingly exposed to foul play practices amplified in the digital age – data leaks, espionage and digital dependency escalate. At a cross-section of these worrying trends and the abovementioned major disruptive developments, a group of digital age leaders from V4 countries have participated in a series of foresight discussions reflecting on the democratic and economic resilience in the region. This brief aims to equip business leaders to manage challenges, capitalise on opportunities and manoeuvre through the intricacies of the global business ecosystem. We’ve derived these strategies from a comprehensive scanning of threat perceptions in the V4 and discussions with the top leaders of the New Europe 100 community, which comprises prominent innovators such as entrepreneurs, experts, investors and activists. The major risks seen by our community to V4 businesses are the following:
- State surveillance and individual data privacy: Rising surveillance in the V4, including the misuse of Pegasus spyware in Hungary and Poland and cyber threats in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, has escalated data privacy and security concerns, impacting digital businesses, freedom of expression and media liberty, especially amid events like Poland’s Covid-19 contact tracing app controversy and Hungary’s pandemic state of emergency
- Foreign interference and platform manipulation: Following national security raids on consulting companies in China, intensified inspection of TikTok due to data transfer, potential government access concerns, and a rise in cyber threats, V4 businesses have heightened operational risks and market instability. These conditions shape strategic choices for V4 entrepreneurs while hindering economic expansion, undermining information sovereignty and threatening democratic security.
- Illiberal governance impact on business decision-making: Illiberal governance in Poland and Hungary has fostered a hostile business environment, affecting labour arrangements, media independence, and civil society engagement, while bureaucracy and limited access to financing. This influences not only local regulatory frameworks and business operations but has a substantial impact on foreign direct investments and the startup ecosystem within the V4 region.
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This foresight project is carried out to address global democratic challenges and vulnerabilities in CEE digital business alliances, creating an advocacy program to manage digital risks amid escalating global tech competition through the New Europe 100 network.
Author
Miles R. Maftean, Editorial Director at Visegrad Insight
Project
This foresight project is carried out to address global democratic challenges and vulnerabilities in CEE digital business alliances, creating an advocacy program to manage digital risks amid escalating global tech competition through the New Europe 100 network.
Contributors
New Europe 100 Action Group – 25 small and medium entrepreneur leaders in CEE mobilised for a foresight discussion
Rui Sulguiero, Business Development Manager at Visegrad Insight
