Foresight
Politics
Poland’s 2025 Presidential Race: Tusk’s Patriotic Gamble
21 April 2025
Regardless of the electoral result this weekend in Hungary, Poland will as of now stand apart remaking the Central European dynamics. The divergence over Russia’s war on Ukraine is only part of the answer.
War in Ukraine has cracked the foundations of Polish-Hungarian political friendship. Either the openly pro-Russian agenda of Orbán wins alienating Poles, or the opposition will win leaving Poland alone in the spat over the rule of law with the EU.
The region’s security and prosperity will remain of critical importance to the EU and NATO but in years it will have to politically reshuffle in order to reclaim political agency in Europe.
Opinion polls research indicates a close race with more chances for the incumbent government of Viktor Orbán. Although a constitutional majority is most likely outside his reach, the electoral tactics involving gerrymandering, media capture, focus on polarisation through smear campaigning and other unfair practices will help the government to push it behind the line.
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