German National Security Strategy Ignores Central Europe 

The change of course on Russia is significant but still hesitant

20 September 2023

Germany’s long-expected defence strategy identifies Russia as a threat but fails to sufficiently acknowledge German responsibility for strengthening NATO’s eastern flank against the background of AfD’s rise and the deteriorating relations with Warsaw.

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced the government in Berlin to make significant changes in its eastern policy. However, the rise in support for the right-wing Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) and public discontent due to the worsening economic situation may slow these changes.

The balance of the turnaround in German policy toward Russia, known as “Zeitenwende”, is mixed. Energy supplies from Russia have been replaced by gas imports from other directions, and diplomatic relations with Moscow are effectively suspended, but the increase in defence spending and military support for Ukraine is on a “one step forward and two steps back” basis.

Fractious coalition

German foreign policy must increasingly take into account changes in public sentiment, which are primarily dictated by the domestic and economic situation. Opinion polls show declining support for the SPD/Greens/FDP coalition government while support for the extreme right-wing and mostly pro-Russian AfD is rising.

Subscribe

Democratic security comes at a price. What is yours? By subscribing or donating now gain access to analysis, forecasts and scenarios by leading analysts and reporters who monitor democratic risks and develop policy debate from Central Europe on Central Europe.

MonthlyVAT included

€4/month

See all details

  • Full access to articles and reports
  • Monthly foresights and risk analysis delivered by e-mail
  • Weekly newsletter with most important highlights
  • Visegrad Insight social media community groups invitation

AnnualVAT included

€40/year

See all details

  • All monthly features PLUS…
  • Free invitation to one editorial board discussion to participate in deciding on the future direction of the Visegrad Insight
  • Free delivery of two select hardcopies of Visegrad Insight reports

Student OR Donation

Choose your contribution

See all details

  • Full access to articles and reports
  • Monthly foresights, weekly newsletters, and risk analysis delivered by e-mail
  • Free invitation to one editorial board discussion to participate in deciding on the future direction of the Visegrad Insight (annual subscription only)

Can I receive an invoice?

Yes. You will receive a receipt immediately after purchase and a VAT invoice upon request. The subscription amount includes tax. In case of a donation, there is no tax.

Are my credit card details safe?

Yes. The payment is processed by STRIPE www.stripe.com entrusted also by Amazon, Zoom, Booking.com and used by other global NGOs and businesses in the world. We do not store your credit card details.

How modify or cancel my subscription?

At any moment you can manage your subscription and account details. Sign in to modify or cancel.

Marzenna Guz-Vetter

Dr Marzenna Guz-Vetter is a former director of the European Commission Representation in Poland. From 2005 to 2023, she worked for the European Commission's Directorate for Communications.

Newsletter

Weekly updates with our latest articles and the editorial commentary.