German National Security Strategy Ignores Central Europe 

Germany’s long-expected defence strategy identifies Russia as a threat but fails to sufficiently acknowledge German responsibility for strengthening NATO’s eastern flank against the background of AfD’s rise and the deteriorating relations with Warsaw.

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced the government in Berlin to make significant changes in its eastern policy. However, the rise in support for the right-wing Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) and public discontent due to the worsening economic situation may slow these changes.

The balance of the turnaround in German policy toward Russia, known as “Zeitenwende”, is mixed. Energy supplies from Russia have been replaced by gas imports from other directions, and diplomatic relations with Moscow are effectively suspended, but the increase in defence spending and military support for Ukraine is on a “one step forward and two steps back” basis.

Fractious coalition

German foreign policy must increasingly take into account changes in public sentiment, which are primarily dictated by the domestic and economic situation. Opinion polls show declining support for the SPD/Greens/FDP coalition government while support for the extreme right-wing and mostly pro-Russian AfD is rising.