Towards a European Russia-Containment Doctrine

Europe knows it made serious mistakes with Russia, but abandoning bad policy is not enough if past mistakes fail to translate into a new viable EU policy towards Moscow. Here is what Europe’s postwar policy towards Russia could be.

Thirteen months after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, its outcome remains hidden in the fog of war. Russia appears to be stuck on the battlefield, suffering huge losses in soldiers and equipment, but it is not yet clear whether Ukraine is winning. While the West is rightly focused on rearming Ukraine and discussing its possible post-war reconstruction, not much can be said about how its policy towards Russia will look once hostilities end.

One obvious reason why European leaders might be circumspect about their vision of future relations with Russia is the “first thing first” approach. Any public discussion of the future strategies on Russia is set to reveal significant differences among key players, creating tensions and damaging the impressive Western unity in helping Ukraine win the war. Another is that we simply do not know on what terms peace can be achieved and whether the war ends with a clear victory (for either side) or a compromise of sorts.

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