Analysis
Economic Security
The V4 Economies Weather Off Hormuz Blockade
29 April 2026
17 December 2025
As Russia’s war is entering an unpredictable phase, building credible deterrence is a matter of survival for Eastern Europe. In this environment, the Asian Tiger provides an opportunity we cannot replicate.
Whatever trajectory the war in Ukraine takes, Russia is likely to maintain a revisionist posture. Moscow is rebuilding defence industrial output at a pace unseen since the Cold War, prioritising artillery, missiles, drones and air-defence systems. These capabilities are not being developed solely for Ukraine. They are intended to re-establish Russia’s influence on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)’s eastern flank and threaten European defence.
Europe’s geopolitical structure indicates that Moscow’s intentions are closely connected with the security of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This region combines strategic location with vulnerability: deeply integrated into European institutions yet adjacent to Russian malign interference. The risk is not confined to territorial aggression. It also includes hybrid warfare, coercion and gradual encroachment on deterrence.
Yet despite unprecedented political momentum, Europe faces serious industrial limitations. Expansion of production lines is slow, supply chains are fragile and workforce constraints are limiting output. Large orders placed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have often resulted in delivery timelines stretching into several years. That is too slow when a major threat could emerge rapidly.