EP ELECTIONS 2024: HOW DEMOCRACY CAN WIN AND EUROPE LOSE – Foresight Report

Strategic Foresight from Central and Eastern Europe

19 April 2024

The European Union stands at a decisive point with the upcoming EU Parliament elections and the formation of a new Commission. These events will significantly shape the state of democracy within the EU and its role as a global actor.

The EU’s democratic resilience and ability to act hinge on collective efforts, political will and adaptability.

In our latest foresight report that lays out strategic foresight based on a year-long discussion with civil society leaders across the EU, we explore potential outcomes and their implications on the democratic policies agenda juxtaposed with the global context of war.

This report analyses the various outcomes of the upcoming EP elections as well as the formation of the new commission on democracy and the global position of the European Union. It systematically examines internal and external challenges, mapping EU responses to safeguard democratic resilience and electoral processes. Additionally, it provides specific policy recommendations to enhance democracy within the Union.

We pinpoint four scenarios that develop along with potential transatlantic disunity and the future of the EU’s perspective on the war in Ukraine. The fallout of each scenario on the EU’s democratic security agenda is significant. It poses several challenges to democratic health and participation in member states, fundamental rights, the rule of law and the EU’s external power as a global actor.

 

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Author: Magdalena Jakubowska

Contributing authors and project partners: Sandra Adomavičiūtė, Jana Baricicova, Gabor Berczeli, Ingrid Borarosova, Kamila Szymańska, Maria Ciupka, Radu Albu Comănescu, Aurélien Duchêne, Jan Eichhorn, Filippo Gianuzzi, Arthur Kenigsberg, Romain Le Quiniou, Chiara Pagnozzi, Louisa Slavkova, Tobias Spöri, Sigita Struberga, Kameliya Tomova, Viera Zuborova.

Workshop participants: Merili Arjakas, Horatiu Botea, Pettit Bratu, Rauca Brehar, Alex Buzduga, Gabriela Ciot, Petra Comsa-Naghi, Adrian Gabriel Corpadean, Adriana Cristian, Spasimir Domaradzki, Jarosław Gwizdak, Pavel Havlicek, Norina Elvira Herki, Agnieszka Homańska, Claudia Annamaria Iov, Adam Jasser, Matej Kandrik, Ádám Kolozsi, Miles Maftean, Paweł Marczewski, Michał Matlak, Monica Merutiu, Adrian Mihaltianu, Liana Miron, Mihnea Morar, Marta Musidłowska, Ivan Laszlo Nagy, Marco Németh, Onur Petenchia, Dominika Rafalska, Rui Salgueiro, Liviu Serban, Filip Stanislav, Albin Sybera, Zsuzsanna Szabó, Liviu Tabara, Dorka Takácsy, Ana Maria Trifan, Julija Tuleikyte, Ovidiu Vaida, Edit Zgut-Przybylska

The challenges and strategies for addressing the associated gaps have emerged from an extensive strategic foresight project involving 10 partner organisations from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and beyond. This collaborative effort engaged over 200 participants, including diverse groups of researchers, policy experts, active politicians from all sides, youth, opinion leaders and more. As a result, we present this report as an inspiration for fostering public discourse both before and after the European Union elections.

Partners:

 

This project is co-financed by the European Union’s Programme Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme (CERV).

This programme aims to protect and promote Union rights and values as enshrined in the EU Treaties and the Charter of Fundamental Rights. It will contribute to sustain and further develop open, rights-based, democratic, equal and inclusive societies based on the rule of law.

Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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