Will Orbán Win the Hungarian Elections by Cosying up to Putin’s Russia?

In this Monthly Foresight, the Hungarian election campaign is going into full gear as Slovak polarisation freezes in light of Russia’s invasion. The war also brings to the forefront the question of European Energy security.

The outcome of the probably most important vote in the European Union in 2022 will decide on the future of Viktor Orbán’s leadership, the fate of illiberal democracies in Europe and the direction of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The Ukraine-Russia war and the East-West divide are becoming the main Hungarian campaigning topic.

Strong ties between Orbán’s regime and Putin’s Russia, which for a long time were promoted by the Hungarian ruling party as an asset or as a bridge between the East and the West — in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine became a burden. Both the Fidesz and the Hungarian state media seemed like they were not prepared for the Russian attack on Ukraine, now they lack credible reports on the ongoing war just across the border and they repeated Russian propaganda. 

Hungarian Election

In the Hungarian general election, 12 political parties compete for 199 parliamentary seats. However two main political blocks fight for the majority of the votes: Orbán-led coalition Fidesz–KDNP (Fidesz — Hungarian Civic Alliance and Christian Democratic People’s Party) against the united opposition block.