Serbia’s Balancing Act Is Running Out of Time

Geoeconomics ahead of elections on 25 October

24 October 2026

Kiril Kirchev and Vasil Minkov

Falling investment, domestic unrest and mounting pressure from the EU, China, Russia and the US are testing the economic model that once powered Serbia’s rise.

Chinese capital, Russian energy and the European market formed the basis of Serbia’s economic model for many years and helped the country become an unavoidable factor in the Western Balkans. At the same time, Belgrade sought to maintain good relations with Washington, whose decisions on sanctions against the oil company NIS now directly affect the Serbian economy.

Balancing between different partners, however, is becoming increasingly difficult amid sharpening geopolitical confrontation. The prolonged protests against the rule of Aleksandar Vučić are also shaking the domestic political stability that the authorities long presented as a competitive advantage for attracting investment.

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