Analysis
Democratic Security
How Post-Orbán Hungary Could Reshape the Western Balkans
22 May 2026
28 September 2023
Tied up in Ukraine, Russia seeks to maintain influence in the region by switching support to Baku and endorsing its latest grab for Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s attack on the ethnic Armenian enclave left the EU embarrassed.
For decades, Armenia was seen as Russia’s most important ally in the South Caucasus. It was not really a friendship but rather a toxic dependency, from which perhaps Yerevan is just now trying to free itself.
This comes at a cost, the brunt of which is carried by Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-dominated enclave in Azerbaijan.
On 19 September, Azerbaijan, in response to what it called a “provocation” by Armenians, launched an “anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku’s demands were threefold: withdrawal of Armenian troops from the region, disarmament of separatist forces, and dissolution of all Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous government structures.