Home of Eurosceptics

As a result of electoral dynamics, representatives from the V4 countries see their numbers grow in the European Conservatives and Reformists group. This retracts many ambitious reform plans for the EU and increases the spread of illiberal messages across Europe.

Takeaways

• The V4-ECR will be sceptical of the future EU Commission and of the pro-European majority in the EP, but it will not become openly anti-European.
• On fundamental issues of EU foreign policy, the V4-ECR is likely to vote together with the majority of the EP. This list includes Russia sanctions, unified positions on China as well as human rights violations in Cuba and Belarus. However, Fidesz later votes to end Russian sanctions.
• The V4-ECR is vehemently anti-immigrant and resists attempts from the Commission to pursue any unified approach towards common immigration policy. On this issue, the V4-ECR vote together with the ENF and EFDD.
• From the EU financial perspective, there is disunity in the grouping. The Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Croats and Latvians vote in favour of a larger budget and more extensive transfers. The Czechs, Slovaks and German libertarians vote against this proposal.
• On the appointments to the EU Commission, the grouping at times abstains or unwillingly supports EPP candidates. As regards the President of the European Central Bank, the group has no strong views since it is essentially anti-euro.

[ihc-hide-content ihc_mb_type=”show” ihc_mb_who=”reg” ihc_mb_template=”3″ ]Expulsion of Orban

The Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) wins the biggest V4 representation, gaining 25 MEPS, in the EP and is likely to become more dominant in the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) faction. Additionally, the group becomes more V4-centric because of two unrelated developments.

After being readmitted to the centre-right European People’s Party, Victor Orbán’s Fidesz is finally expelled due to their continued attacks on the rule of law in Hungary.

Orbán, attempting to flex his muscles on both domestic and continental fronts, decides to join the ECR.

The Czech ODS, set up by Vaclav Klaus, is already an ECR member but wins EP seats and extends their influence. A similar situation plays out for the libertarian Freedom and Solidarity party of Richard Sulik in Slovakia.

Together with the mildly-eurosceptic Ordinary People’s Party, the power of the ECR grows remarkably compared with the previous EP session.  

Home to eurosceptics

In this scenario, the ECR group becomes a natural home for eurosceptics in general, but it specifically has a Visegrad-hue due to some distinct regional characteristics.

All these parties have sceptical – though not rejectionist – attitudes towards the EU.

They question the scope and extent of European integration but refrain (at least openly) from calling for the withdrawal from the EU.

Moreover, both the Polish PiS and Hungarian Fidesz are in fact portraying themselves as true Europeans who call for the reform of the EU along Gaullist lines. This echoes back to the idea of a Europe of the Nations and with the desire to repatriate powers back to nations’ capitals.

See Triumph of Illiberalism scenario outlined in Scenarios for 2025 report

All is not united in the ECR, however. Both the Czech and Slovak parties are more eurosceptic than the other V4 members, seeing the EU as a grand bureaucratic plot and often likening it to the former Soviet Union. 

Even so, they still hold back from calling for a withdrawal from the EU in order to avoid the chaos exemplified by Brexit.

Domestic agenda first

All these and many other parties are anti-immigrant and strongly reject EU interference in the individual member states’ immigration policies, for instance, the governing ANO party in Czechia and Smer in Slovakia.

The cases are similar for Fidesz and PiS who have, to varying degrees, built much of their recent popularity on their anti-immigration stances. Overall this attitude is genuinely popular in the V4 and will be maintained for the foreseeable future. 

Momentarily united in their goals, Fidesz and PiS increase their attacks on the liberal democratic model akin to smear campaigns against George Soros, moderate politicians in the EPP, the LGBTQ community as well as Islamophobic and nativist rhetoric.

Contrastingly, the Czech ODS and Slovak SaS see the liberal democracies of Central Europe as not being liberal enough and edge towards libertarianism. Surprisingly, although for different reasons, all four parties share a similar dissatisfaction with the traditional western political model.

Flirting with the far-right

At the same time, the far-right Nations and Freedom Group (ENF) and anti-European Freedom and Direct Democracy Group (EFDD) both make gains in the election.

Talks are held between the three eurosceptic parties (including the ECR) about uniting under a single banner, which would give this new grouping around 25 – 27 per cent of seats and make them the biggest grouping in the parliament, overtaking even the EPP.

However, the ECR is not as far-right as the ENF and is not as anti-European as the EFDD. Moreover, the two latter groupings are evidently pro-Russian, which may be acceptable for Fidesz but not for PiS, which maintains a vehemently anti-Russian stance.

Therefore, the differences between the ENF, EFDD and ECR are too significant for the time being and the talks end with them divided. The ECR retains its separate status somewhere in the middle between the EPP and the radical eurosceptics.

Inevitably, Brexit causes harm to the ECR’s relative position and status in the EP. At the same time, the regional characteristics of the grouping grows, turning the party into a natural home for all sceptics from Central Europe and beyond.

This includes – on the one hand – the far-right parties from Romania and Croatia and – on the other – milder sceptics from Germany and Austria.

PiS, with varying degrees of success, attempts to push the ECR to forge ahead with a more Visegrad-centric platform.[/ihc-hide-content]

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About:
Visegrad Insight 2 (14) 2019
European Parliamentary #Futures
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Published by Res Publica Foundation
Partner: Konrad Adenauer Foundation
Supported by: ABTSHIELD

Authors:
Wojciech Przybylski, Editor-in-Chief
Marcin Zaborowski, Senior Associate

Team:
Magda Jakubowska, Director of Operations
Galan Dall, Managing Editor
Anhelina Pryimak, Editorial Assistant
Anna Kulikowska-Kasper, Contributor
Paweł Kuczyński, Illustrations
Rzeczyobrazkowe, Graphic Design