Why Ukraine’s Fate May Depend on Beijing

Beijing’s support for Russia has become indispensable to Moscow’s war effort. As the Politburo strengthens its role, Western leaders can no longer afford to view China as a neutral actor in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The wallet that keeps the Kremlin afloat

Despite a slight decline in trade caused by a drop in vehicle imports to Russia and a decrease in oil exports to China, Beijing remains a key economic lifeline for the Kremlin, with bilateral trade expected to reach 230–235 billion dollars by the end of 2025. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has emerged as one of the key economic lifelines for Moscow, achieving a record 245 billion dollars in bilateral trade in 2024, more than double pre-war levels. China is now Russia’s largest trading partner.

Around thirty per cent of Russia’s external trade is now settled in yuan, a dramatic shift from two per cent in 2022. The Kremlin has promoted yuan settlement as an alternative to the dollar and the euro to mitigate the impact of sanctions imposed by the West. In May 2025 Germany’s Federal Foreign Office estimated that China accounts for 80 per cent of Russia’s sanction circumventions.

Energy exports drive this relationship. China purchases Russian oil, natural gas and coal at discounted prices comparable to domestic Russian gas prices, helping Moscow minimise losses from Western embargoes. The Power of Siberia pipeline delivered thirty-one billion cubic metres of gas in 2024, with plans to expand to forty-four billion cubic metres annually. It has already become one of the key drivers of economic relations between Moscow and Beijing, and discussions are ongoing on launching another pipeline capable of delivering up to fifty billion cubic metres per year. This steady flow of Chinese trade and energy purchases has enabled the Kremlin to blunt sanctions and continue financing its war.