Scenario 1: Regionally Segregated Generations

5 July 2021


All countries of the region engage in the 3SI but put forward projects disconnected from one another and are unable to synchronise regional potential.

Along the electoral cycle, new successful governments in Central Europe disconnect from the regional initiatives and try to establish their agenda solely on pan-EU platforms. In countries like Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary new generations of politicians win elections and disconnect from the 3SI but also the V4 mostly because of the ideological legacy. 

While Poland — regardless of the presidential election result back in 2020 or in 2025 — would uphold its commitment to the 3SI, the other partners’ political elites are more volatile in their approach. 

With the absence of public debate on the region’s strategy on independent media platforms and uneven engagement with policy influencers from all 3SI nations, the individual countries become embroiled in positional negotiations on national priorities instead of focusing on transnational benefits. 

Projects funded by the EU, 3SI Fund, investment banks and from national resources continue to be considered by successive governments as spoils of electoral wars, deepening problems with corruption and the rule of law.

The inflow of capital to the region along 3SI objectives is contributing to the build-up of illiberal tendencies, reducing democratic security and fuelling the centralisation of governance. This leads to the hampering of investment potential in the initiative due to the stalemate in Article 7 proceedings in the EU along with neo-imperial narratives dissuading potential investors.

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