What Scenarios for Belarus – A Foresight Breakfast

In partnership with The German Marshall Fund of the U.S.

28 June 2023

On 28 June at 9 AM, Visegrad Insight – Res Publica Foundation and The German Marshall Fund of the United States organised an interactive foresight workshop discussing three scenarios for the future of Belarus in light of the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has impacted Belarus’s political and geopolitical dynamics, delivering a second shock not long since the political crisis that engulfed the country after the fraudulent presidential election of 2020. President Aliaksandar Lukashenka’s autocratic regime, increasingly reliant on the Kremlin’s support since 2020, has supported Russia in its aggression against Ukraine while continuing its repression campaign against any democratic opposition voices.

Click here to read the report: How Russia’s War on Ukraine Can Impact Belarus

This exclusive meeting will be a two-hour, moderated foresight discussion to elaborate and refine three scenarios for Belarus’s future while developing recommendations for Belarus’s pro-democracy forces and Western actors. The input during the seminar will shape the final foresight paper to be published in mid-July.

9 AM Welcome and foresight moderation: Wojciech Przybylski (Editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight, Res Publica Foundation)
9:10 AM Introductory remarks: Joerg Forbrig (GMFUS Berlin, Managing Director – Transatlantic Trusts)
9:20 AM Presentation of the scenarios: Katsiaryna Lozka, a Belarusian researcher, a ReThink.CEE of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a doctoral fellow at Ghent University and the United Nations University on Comparative Regional Studies specializing in Eastern European politics. She has been a visiting researcher at Tartu University and worked with the Belarusian Helsinki Committee and the GLOBSEC Policy Institute.
9:40 AM Foresight oriented discussion

Photos from the event:


The VISEGRAD INSIGHT BREAKFAST (VIB) format invites a select group of ambassadors, diplomats, experts and journalists for off-the-record monthly meetings with a Central European perspective. Read briefs from previous meetings: https://visegradinsight.eu/visegrad-breakfasts/

Strategic Foresight by Visegrad Insight

In-house programme dedicated to analysing impactful trends, mapping out potential scenarios and generating weekly and monthly foresights.


Weekly updates with our latest articles and the editorial commentary.