Vulnerable Position

Any attempt to force Belarus to make a choice between East and West is doomed to failure, and the only way to preserve the country’s independence is to reform it.

Michael Carpenter is Senior Director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He also serves on the Board of Directors of the Jamestown Foundation. Previously, he worked at the Pentagon as Deputy to an Assistant Secretary of Defense, responsible for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, the Balkans and conventional arms control.

Alexander Atroshchankau spoke with the famous American political scientist about what will happen if Russia tries to annex the country.

You have been working in different capacities on issues related to Belarus for a long time. What changes have you been seeing recently in the situation around our country?

The fundamental change was the divergence of interests: the once joint interests of Russia and Belarus are no longer such. And I see the main differences in the following. First, Russia no longer wants to subsidise Belarus with cheap gas and oil for re-export and compensate its tax manoeuvre. The once established order of cooperation breaks up, and there is no economic unity anymore.