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Context – Jarosław Kaczyński’s comments sparked a political communication outburst and also pointed to a real-life problem that PiS has pledged to solve, but has failed to tackle despite being in power since 2015 and allocating a lot of money to designated programmes.
“Demographic panic”, fear of declining populations, has been on the minds of Central European leaders for quite some time.
Firstly, just after EU accession, decision-makers in Central Europe feared brain drain and large-scale migration to more affluent Western European countries. More recently, since Central Europe entered the phase of demographic development characterised by low fertility rates and longer life expectancy, declining birthrates seem to be one of the main concerns of (mainly conservative) Central European politicians.
Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland, is no exception. However, his recent comments about the reasons for the declining fertility rate in the country do not bode well for the efficiency of the government’s plans to tackle the problem.
Speaking at a rally in Ełk, a town in northeastern Poland, Mr Kaczyński said that the low fertility rate is a matter of “attitude” and pointed to Warsaw as the most affluent Polish city with the lowest fertility rate. He continued with a remark that caused particular indignation in the media: “if it continues to be the case that, by the age of 25, girls, young women, drink as much as their male peers, there won’t be children.”
Dubious declarations
Kaczyński’s claim that levels of alcohol consumption among young urban Polish women are the reasons why they do not want to have children has no backing in data. Based on stereotypical thinking, it is rather meant as a symbolic nod to older, rural voters suspicious and sometimes also anxious about urban youth.
🇵🇱 Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland's ruling Law and Justice Party, has come under fire for blaming the country's low birth rate on young women drinking too much.
He said for the average man "to develop alcoholism has to drink excessively for 20 years; a woman only two".
— TLDR News EU (@TLDRNewsEU) November 7, 2022
Not long ago, a statement about Warsaw being a city with the lowest fertility rate would be equally baseless. In 2019, the Polish capital, along with seven other big cities, had a birth rate higher than 1.5 while the average for Poland at the time was 1.42. Experts explained this difference with better access to childcare services and better perspectives for young mothers to balance careers with motherhood in big cities. In 2021, however, according to the data from National Census, the fertility rate for Poland dropped to 1.32 and it sunk even more in Warsaw – to 1.22.
Reasons for this decline are far more complicated than “attitude.” When asked by in an opinion poll conducted by Ipsos in December 2021 about obstacles to having children, young Polish women named “fear of losing their jobs” (41 per cent), “insufficient funds to afford a child” (39 per cent) and “risk of being pregnant” (33 per cent). The third most often named factor is directly linked to a draconian law that makes legal abortion in Poland almost impossible since the politically controlled Constitutional Tribunal ruled on the matter in October 2020.
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The statement by chairman Kaczyński contradicts not only what we know about reasons why young Polish women do not want to have children, but it also undermines policies of his own government stated in the newly published “Demographic Strategy 2040.” The main goals of the strategy are providing more financial security to families and removing obstacles to combining childcare with work.
To borrow a few of Kaczyński’s words, if it continues to be the case that government focuses on the attitude of young women instead of the actual needs of mothers and future mothers, there won’t be children.
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This article has been prepared in the framework of a cooperation programme between major press titles in Central Europe led by Visegrad Insight at the Res Publica Foundation.
Featured Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash
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