Next Target Crimea

Why it is in Ukraine's interest to make a bold military move this spring and summer

19 April 2023

Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

With Russia left with few military or strategic options, now is the time for Ukraine to make a bold move and retake Crimea.

For months now, most media coverage has focused on the grinding fights over Bakhmut and a couple of other cities in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as Russia concentrated on conquering both regions as the main war goal. With an already fading offensive, which brought minimal gains, Russian forces should be significantly exhausted and weakened.

The upcoming Ukrainian spring offensive has been anticipated with very high (maybe too high) expectations. Kyiv is in a very different situation from the first phases of the war when forecasts were low; at that time, Ukraine was fighting for survival, and any success, any victory, came with a significant boost of morale domestically and a boost of determination to help from abroad.

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Matej Kandrík

Marcin Król Fellow

Matej Kandrík is a Marcin Król Fellow 2022/2023 and a cofounder of Adapt Institute and a PhD candidate in Political Science with a specialisation in Security and Strategic Studies at Masaryk University in Brno, Czechia. In 2016 he did a research stay at the National Defence University of Poland. He collaborated as a research fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the International Republican Institute as a Transatlantic Initiative fellow. Currently, he is participating in CEU Democratic Institute Leadership Academy. His research interests include comprehensive defence, paramilitarism in Central Eastern Europe and strategic communication.

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