The project seeks to energise a forward-looking debate among civil society actors in CEE on the block’s key challenges and to identify and address the main threat perceptions.

The project will provide educational remedies through original research while empowering citizens of different ages and backgrounds to participate in the political process, especially in the run-up to the European Parliamentary elections in 2024. We will invite diverse groups of civil society stakeholders, including youth and minorities, to participate in a structured citizens’ driven foresight advising on the future policy directions of the EU. The output will be disseminated among civil society actors, including youth organisations, and presented to MEPs as a means to raise exposure to diverse, bottom-up voices primarily from countries with the lowest participation in the EU’s political process.

Related Publications:

In our latest foresight report that lays out strategic foresight based on a year-long discussion with civil society leaders across the EU, we explore potential outcomes and their implications on the democratic policies agenda juxtaposed with the global context of war.

This report analyses the various outcomes of the upcoming EP elections as well as the formation of the new commission on democracy and the global position of the European Union. It systematically examines internal and external challenges, mapping EU responses to safeguard democratic resilience and electoral processes. Additionally, it provides specific policy recommendations to enhance democracy within the Union.

Click here to read more and download the report

Events:

24 May 2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Brussels: Navigating Informed Choices in the 2024 EP Elections – CEE Perspectives

On 24 May, together with the Permanent Representation of Poland to the EU, we organised a debate in Brussels featuring Wojciech Przybylski, Sigita Struberga, Wojtek Talko and  Magdalena Jakubowska as a moderator. The event began with a speech by H.E. Maciej Stadejek – Representative of Poland to the Political and Security Committee.

How can we make more from information space to protect democracy in Europe? How can EU institutions counter disinformation? What is the role of the media in countering disinformation narratives? During our discussion, we delved into these issues.

In the age of disinformation, participation in these elections is crucial. At the same time, some politicians running for the European Parliament propose extremely radical and anti-EU narratives. The challenge of maintaining democratic security is even more difficult under such conditions.

This 2-hour event gathered 30 participants from 9 countries (Poland – 14, Greece – 3, Belgium – 6, Spain – 2, Hungary – 1, Slovakia – 1, Czech Republic – 1, Latvia – 1, Germany -1), as well as From non-EU member states (Colombia – 1, Georgia – 1).

Photographs by Łukasz Kobus.

20 May 2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Sofia, The 2024 EP elections: between reality and hope

On May 20, together with CIVICS, we organised a debate in Sofia featuring Wojciech Przybylski, Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR), and Garvan Walshe (Unhack Democracy), moderated by Petar Karaboev (Economedia). In the discussion, we considered scenarios for the outcomes of the upcoming EP elections and how they might impact democratic security.

As Wojciech Przybylski, Editor-in-Chief of Visegrad Insight argued, EU institutions need a strong mandate. These elections are pivotal moments for the EU, given the rise of extremist politics and potential crises. That’s why the EU should invest more in civic education and informative campaigns to foster a stronger bond with citizens and potentially boost electoral participation.

Altogether 52 participants from 8 EU member states took part in this discussion (Belgium – 2, Bulgaria – 42, Poland -2, Czech Republic – 1, Germany – 2, Denmark – 1, France – 1, Hungary -1), as well as From non-EU countries (Turkey – 1, United Kingdom – 1, United States – 1, Switzerland – 1).

Photographs by Gergana Pavlova:

16 May 2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Vilnius: Europe’s Future After 2024 European Parliament Elections

Together with the Open Lithuania Foundation, we organised a debate “Europe’s Future After 2024 European Parliament Elections”. The discussion was moderated by Maksimas Reznikovas, and the participants were Sandra Adomavičiūtė, Magda Jakubowska, Andrius Kubilius, Klaudijus Melys, and Margarita Šešelgytė. The event took place at Didzioji Street 5, Vilnius. During our discussion, we focused on the impact of the EP elections on the future of the EU’s democracy.

This event gathered 28 participants from 8 EU member states (Poland – 2, Lithuania – 20, Sweden – 1, Finland – 1, Romania – 1, Latvia -1, Germany – 1, France – 1) as well as from non-EU member states (Japan – 2).

9 May  2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Warsaw: EP Elections 2024: High time for informed decisions

On Thursday, 9 May, we organised a debate in Warsaw, that gathered experts from Central Eastern Europe: Tomasz Chłoń (Director of Strategic Communications, Polish MFA, Poland), Magdalena Jakubowska (Vice-President, Visegrad Insight – Res Publica Foundation, Poland), Eva Mihočková (Editor-in-chief, Foreign Policy, Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Slovakia), Wojciech Przybylski (Editor-in-Chief, Visegrad Insight, President, Res Publica Foundation, Poland), Julia Smirnova (Senior Analyst, Institute for Strategic Dialogue, London), Veronika Víchová (Analyst, Center for an Informed Society, Czech Republic), and Bartosz Wieliński (Deputy editor-in-chief, Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland).

Throughout the event, our focus was on the impact of disinformation on the upcoming European Parliament elections. Tomasz Chłoń’s keynote speech emphasised the actions taken by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs against disinformation and the importance of Strategic Communication units.

Following the speech, Magda Jakubowska shared insights and the main focus of our recommendations and scenarios from the report for the future of Europe after the elections.

Next, we continued with Eva Mihockova’s presentation of the Slovak case, highlighting the role disinformation plays in the recent parliamentary and upcoming EP electoral campaigns and how it remains unchallenged by the government. Slovak society has been actively protesting after Robert Fico’s victory as prime minister, and further concerns arose in democratic circles after Peter Pelligrini’s subsequent win in the presidential elections. Mihockova noted the significant support for conspiracy theories and pro-Russian narratives within Slovak society.

Bartosz Wieliński emphasised the importance of democratic parties winning the elections, referring to the Polish example and Tusk’s coalition’s victory. The crucial and unconditional point was the need for a strong civil society. 

My advice is first – build your open, civil society, it will probably take years. One demonstration in Bratislava won’t work, it will take time. Without the civil society army, Donald Tusk would not have been able to create this political power to win with the authoritarian regime of the PiS party.

In Czech society, pro-Russian narratives and disinformation are widely disseminated through various social media channels. The most active on social media are right-wing populists, who, for example, reach young users through platforms like TikTok, said Vera Vichova. 

The problem lies in the absence of democratic representatives on these social media platforms. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš adopts practices and narratives from regional populists, including Viktor Orbán. Many of these narratives concern the topics of the war in Ukraine and migration.

EP elections tend to be low turnout and EU topics are secondary for those who go to vote. Babiš’s party is in the lead, all others are much lower in the polls

This 2-hour event gathered 56 participants from 10 EU countries (Poland – 45, Lithuania – 1, Germany – 1, Slovakia – 3, Hungary – 1, Romania – 1, Belgium – 1, Sweden -1, Norway – 1 and the Netherlands – 1) as well as 8 participants from non-EU countries (UK – 2, Ukraine – 2, Japan – 2, Taiwan – 1, Georgia – 1).

Photographs by Jacek Karaczun.

29 April 2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Budapest: Is this the end of the mainstream in Brussels?

Together with the Robert Schuman Institute, we organised a public debate in Budapest, which gathered experts from Germany, Hungary and Poland. In the discussion participated Magdalena Jakubowska (Vice-President, Visegrad Insight – Res Publica Foundation, Poland), Gabor Berczeli (Director, Robert Schuman Institute, Hungary), Wojciech Przybylski (Editor-in-chief, Visegrad Insight, President, Res Publica Foundation, Poland, online), Tobias Spöri (lecturer, Vienna University, Head of Program, D-Part Berlin, Germany), and Thomas Thaler (Senior Associate Director, APCO, Brussels).

We discussed with Budapest-based experts, students, academics, and diplomats the challenges and opportunities that the new possible setup in the European Parliament brings to democratic resilience, the Rule of Law, fundamental rights, and the EU’s role as a global actor.

The event gathered 28 participants from 10 EU member states (Poland – 3, Hungary – 17, Belgium – 1, Italy – 1, Ireland – 1, Slovakia – 1, Austria – 1, Spain – 1, Romania – 1, Finland -1) as well as one participant from USA, a non-EU country.

26 April 2024 – PUBLIC DEBATE, Paris: Who will vote for European sovereignty?

Together with Euro Créative we hosted a public debate in Assemblée Nationale in Paris. The event was attended by a full house and included experts from France, Latvia, Romania and Poland who discussed French and Central European perspectives on European sovereignty ahead of the upcoming European Parliament elections. The meeting’s keynote was delivered with the member of the National Assembly Benjamin Haddad speech, which underlined that the EU should not lose its focus and stand firm on the values we share. Our team presented the new foresight report “EP elections 2024: How democracy can win and Europe lose”, outlining CEE’s perspective to French audiences. The main part of the debate gravitated towards widely understood EU security – including resilience and military defence, economic, energy infrastructure protection and diversification, societal constraints and strategic communication to grow engagement and feeling of agency in member states. However, the key question during the debate was how to reinforce cooperation within the EU to progress the enlargement process. For this, a window of opportunity might be the ongoing war in Ukraine. Those hopeful and worried voices questioned whether the US would continue delivering support for Kyiv after the elections.

Altogether the event gathered 40 participants from 7 EU countries (Poland – 4, France – 27. Slovakia – 2, Latvia – 3, Romania – 2, Malta – 1, Estonia – 1) as well as from non-EU countries (Moldova – 1).

26 July 2023-26 September 2023 – online: series of foresight workshops [no. 4]

In three rounds, Visegrad Insight and partners, including dPart, Bratislava Policy Insititute (BPI), and Latvian Transatlantic Organisation (LATO) held foresight workshops online where participants from different nationalities, professions, and age, diagnosed key challenges for the EU’s future in regards to the 2024 Parliamentary elections. The areas discussed were security, law, democracy, and fundamental rights, drawing upon the participants’ varied experiences. The discussion underscored the necessity for enhanced cooperation, adherence to EU law, and a commitment to inclusivity, particularly for social, ethnic, and cultural minorities. However, decentralisation, especially in security, was suggested to respect individual countries’ unique situations. A report summarising the outcomes of these workshops will be released in April 2024 and will culminate in the Citizens Foresight project on the 2024 European Parliament Elections, featuring voices from the CEE region.

For each of the workshop the groups were chosen within certain regions of the EU (Visegrad, Baltics, Austria/Germany/Romania/Bulgaria etc) – within or directly neighbouring the CEE.

Participants were recruited among institutions and groups dPart, LATO and BPI normally work with, so thanks to that we had gathered a diversity of opinions, age and backgrounds.

Most of the participants were students, policy/think-tank experts, and academics, who on daily basis work on topics relevant to this foresight’s focus, incl. policy and human security related topics, citizenship and participation, democracy, gender equality, minorities rights, rule of law, media/speech freedom and disinformation, social inequalities, etc.

The objectives of the workshops were to provide feedback and engage in discussions regarding the outcomes of scenarios, gather input on the EU’s main challenges, and generate ideas and recommendations on how to address them. The input collected contributed to the final project report, scheduled for publication and presented prior to the EU Parliament elections.

The aim of the report and particularly the policy recommendations is to offer ideas for improving resilience of the EU agenda to potentially being embraced by political parties or single politicians.

Altogether, at these workshop sessions we gathered 154 participants – 75 women and 79 men – from 17 countries (most represented was: Latvia with a 67 cohort of students and experts, Austria – 21, Germany – 14, Slovakia – 11, Czech Rep. and Poland – 10 from each country; we also had strong voices from Hungary – 4 , Estonia, Lithuania and Romania – 3 per each, and 1 from Denmark, Croatia, France, Bulgaria, Belgium and Italy. Additionally, we had 2 participants from the UK working on EU affairs.

6-8 July 2023 – Cluj-Napoca, Romania: foresight workshop no. 3

25 participants from 7 different EU countries joined the foresight discussions (17 from Romania, 2 from Poland and Slovakia, 1 from each: Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Latvia) to formulate a strategic vision for tackling future obstacles and seizing opportunities impacting the 2024 EU parliamentary elections. The meeting was the second stage of a comprehensive project to bring forward CEE perspectives on the upcoming EU elections and inform policy debate with different regional points of view while emphasising shared EU values and its link to the future of the European priorities and the democratic security of the Union.

The result was a blueprint providing valuable insights and tangible steps for enduring growth that will persist for the entire duration of the project. This represented a meaningful stride towards a flourishing future for the CEE region, imbuing the participants with a sense of accomplishment and optimism.

26-28 May 2023 – Conversano, Italy: foresight workshop no. 2

33 participants from 13 different EU countries joined the latest foresight discussion (13 from Poland, 5 from Hungary, 3 from Romania, 2 from Slovakia, 1 from each: Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Portugal; 2 participants were from Ukraine) aimed to create a strategic foresight plan to navigate future challenges and opportunities effecting the 2024 EU parliamentary elections. The outcome was a plan that provides insights and concrete actions for long-term development that will continue throughout the project length. This was a significant step towards a prosperous future for the CEE region, leaving participants with a sense of achievement and hope.

20-21 April 2023 – Warsaw, Poland: kick-off foresight discussion

As a first foresight event, Visegrad Insight, Res Publica Foundation hosted an in-person breakfast on the upcoming 2-year electoral cycle shaping the future of Europe, including the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections and national races, with a focus on challenges to European values and the influence of the nationalist agenda on EU outcomes. Led by Wojciech Przybylski and partner organizations, the event aimed to launch our new citizen foresight project, generating policy options and fostering public debate. The discussion delved into questions regarding political trends, consequences for the EU affairs, expected election results, and developing potential scenarios for a more democratic and inclusive electoral process. 30 participants from 10 different EU countries joined the discussion (20 from Poland, 2 from Hungary, 1 from each: Bulgaria, Romania, Sweden, Slovakia, Austria, France, Portugal, and Lithuania). Read the full description of the event here.

To launch the new citizen foresight project, Visegrad Insight hosted the ten partners from partner organisations at its headquarters for the initial project kick-off meeting where they discussed the main areas to focus on for the remainder of the project cycle in a horizon-scanning, foresight-building workshop.

ABOUT THIS PROJECT:

The aim of this project is twofold: first, to promote citizens’ and representative associations’ participation in the democratic and civic life of the Union, by encouraging the exchange of views in all areas of Union action, and second, to develop transnational partnerships and networks that allow citizens from diverse backgrounds to actively participate in the EU policymaking process.

The project seeks to energise a forward-looking debate on the key challenges facing the EU by empowering citizens of different ages and backgrounds to participate in the political process and address democratic deficits in the Union. The project will primarily focus on civil society stakeholders in CEE and other EU countries, overcoming an image of limited input associated with the region through extensive workshops, consultations, and scenario-building, and engaging public debate through the media and social media exchange. Diverse groups of civil society stakeholders, including youth and minorities, will participate in a structured citizens’ driven foresight advising on the future policy directions of the EU, with the output disseminated among civil society actors and presented to MEPs to raise exposure to diverse, bottom-up voices.

The project brings together a larger group of partners from the following institutions: Bratislava Policy Institute (Slovakia), Euro Créative (France), THE CIVICS (Bulgaria), Fondazione Di Vagno (Italy), Babeş-Bolyai University (Romania), DPart (Germany), Robert Schuman Institute (Hungary), Latvian Transatlantic Organisation (Latvia), and the Open Lithuania Foundation (Lithuania). This project is supported by the European Commission’s Europe for Citizens Programme and the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme (CERV) framework cooperation.

ABOUT STRATEGIC FORESIGHT:

Strategic foresight is a powerful analytical method that helps multinational organisations and institutions navigate in times of uncertainty.

By means of strategic foresight, Visegrad Insight – Res Publica Foundation develops plausible scenarios for democratic security in Europe and actionable policy options. We work with a comprehensive network of experts and eminent leaders across Central and Eastern Europe. With a focus on major strategic decisions ahead, we analyse the impact of megatrends, conduct horizon scanning, and host scenario-building workshops. The scenarios generate a future-oriented public debate in Europe to best inform decision-making.

In 2023 Visegrad Insight’s work focuses on three key areas: EU policies’ impact on democratic security, the future of EU enlargement and neighbourhood, and scenarios for the European elections in 2024.

Our strategic foresight is powered by: the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., the National Endowment for Democracy, the ZEIT Foundation, META, the International Visegrad Fund, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office UK, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the European Commission.

• Bulgaria
• Central Europe
• Czech Republic
• Democratic Security
• Elections
• EU
• EU Budget
• EU Commission
• Germany
• Hungary
• Poland
• Slovakia