An Unexpected Gift

German political leaders poured cold water over President Macron’s comments about NATO and a possible rapprochement with Russia. Instead, they reinforced German security guarantees, in particular for the Central and Eastern European countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank. With a potential revival of the Weimar Triangle that could also include consultation on defence and security matters, Berlin ought to follow words by more ambitious deeds underpinned by a broader strategy.

In November of last year, French President Emanuel Macron rocked the NATO boat with his “brain-dead” diagnosis pronounced in his interview for The Economist. Among the many reactions his statements provoked, the German one was unexpectedly unequivocal and steadfast in light of Berlin’s notorious lack of direction and lacklustre attitude to defence.

Several senior German politicians not only highlighted the primacy of NATO as a European security framework and the need for more German burden-sharing but also cautioned against Macron’s enthusiasm for rapprochement with Russia.

Having now visited Warsaw, after working around Poland for the past three years of his presidency, Macron raised the prospect of reviving the Weimar Triangle, which also includes Germany. Leaving aside numerous failed past attempts to breathe political life into this format as well as more domestic EU issues it could address, the question remains whether today’s Germany can make a reliable partner for Poland (and by extension the other eastern flank countries) in security matters.